Bayesian Artificial Intelligence

- Bayesian Decision Network
Possible Systems (S)
1. Conventional system (CS)
2. Unconventional system (US)

- Input Discrete Probability Values

Drilling time (T) P(T|S)
Drilling systems CS US
11 days
16 days

Total cost (DC) P(DC|T,S)
Drilling systems CS US
Drilling time 11 days 16 days 11 days 16 days
High
Moderate
Low

Environmental impact (DE) P(DE|T,S)
Drilling systems CS US
Drilling time 11 days 16 days 11 days 16 days
High
Moderate
Low

Consequences (C) P(C|DC, DE)
Total cost High Moderate Low
Environmental impact High Moderate Low High Moderate Low High Moderate Low
Worst
Intermediate
Best

Consequences Worst Intermediate Best
Utility value, U(C)

- Conditional Marginal Probability Distributions

Total cost P(DC|S)
Drilling systems CS US
High 0 0
Moderate 0 0
Low 0 0
Environmental impact P(DE|S)
Drilling systems CS US
High 0 0
Moderate 0 0
Low 0 0
Consequences P(C|S)
Drilling systems CS US
Worst 0 0
Intermediate 0 0
Best 0 0
Drilling systems CS US
Decision Risk Index 0 0